Tuesday, July 8, 2014

"Most people overestimate what they can accomplish in one year and underestimate what they can accomplish in three." - (I don't remember)


I think that quote came from the book "Megatrends" by John Naisbitt. It was published in 1984 and I read it shortly thereafter. Great book full of common sense insights that had me saying to myself, "Why didn't that occur to me?" (Shaddup) For example, his observation that trends start at the bottom of society and work their way to the top, whereas fads start at the top and work their way down. The former last, the latter fade after a short period of time. So, Starlette A wears a particular new style and suddenly it appears on the rack at Target...for about six months. However, when the masses forsake the malls for online shopping the malls get bulldozed (a fascinating development in itself.)

OK, back to the quote at the top of the page. It's self-evident when we think about it, and we can see plenty of examples in our own lives never mind at the organizational level. Yet we still often act in the opposite way. I've determined to follow Naisbitt's counsel and think long term as much as possible. Pam kids me about researching everything but not only is it how I'm wired I think it generally makes more sense. It stretches out the timeline but it keeps me - at least sometimes - from making foolish moves. I did a lot of research before buying that VW to restore, and did the same before jumping into this truck.

I'm sitting in a McDonalds just outside the Portland airport waiting for Pam's flight to set down. I was supposed to be in the cell phone lot but this airport is a mess of construction barriers, I'm pulling a trailer that requires a pull-through space, and it just seemed easier to be 5 minutes out and drive in when she calls from the curb. The 3-minute difference won't matter to her. (Thank you, again, Lord for a low-maintenance wife.)

One of the things we're doing on this trip is research. It's not imminent, or even in the near-term, but one of these days we're going to retire. We're talking years out, for lots of reasons. But when the time comes what should we do? I know too many people who say, "I should have," or, "We could have." I/we don't want to do fall victims to inertia and die 20 years later thinking about wasted opportunities. (That's why I've tackled a variety of projects, some of which were flops and others a ton of fun.)

Should we stay in Sun City, in this house, and do what we've been doing minus the jobs until we either die or need someone to wipe the drool from our mouths?  One option is moving back to a more rural, pastoral setting like the favorite places we've lived over this vagabond life - Prunedale, CA (now prohibitively expensive) or Michigan (minus that local's brutal winters). That course would take us to the Pacific Northwest, from northern CA up through WA. Take out Portland and Seattle (not rural) and the field is wide open.

A small piece of land (.5 - 2 acres), a tiny house similar to this, an outbuilding big enough for storage, a chicken coop and vegetable garden and life is good. Maybe. Lots of things need to be considered, foremost among them our connection to kids and grandkids. We want to travel via teardrop, find a good church, and have access to medical care (we're not getting healthier).

So while we're in Oregon for the next two weeks we're going to poke around the real estate market. Any lot on the market now won't be there years from now when the time comes but we'll get a feel for what exists where. By mentally imagining, "Could we live here?" we can rule this scenario out as unwise or undesirable or decide it looks like a realistic possibility. If the latter occurs we can put Naisbitt's adage to work and take the incremental steps to turn dream into reality. But if we wait until retirement is upon us we'll end up doing what we've done and wonder, "what if..."

Besides, what's the harm? It's kinda fun to explore, to imagine, and to talk to people we'd otherwise never engage. Yesterday - cannot recall what meal it was - at a Denny's in Redding, CA I asked the hostess to rate that small city on a scale of 1-10. She gave it a solid five. She's lived there all her life (I'm guessing she's in her late 20's) and said the crime rate is going up, largely due to a growing heroin problem. She came back to my table a couple of times to add to her assessment. That conversation was interesting and I enjoyed hearing her story. (Everybody has a story.) Never would have had that exchange except for this research project.

I haven't posted any pics so far because I-5, Denny's, and rest stops don't rate high on the "visually interesting" scale. In three or four hours we'll be planted in Silver Falls State Park, one of the most beautiful in the state of beautiful locals. So while I won't be able to post unless we've gone into town for internet access you can expect to see pics of this state's beauty. And maybe things we've learned about what it would be like to live here.

In the meantime, what could you accomplish three years out?

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