Thursday, March 12, 2009

Luck is a dividend of sweat.

I like vintage photos and thought this one was especially cool. Look at the size of that saw!
How long did it take those guys to cut that down?

I got a lot done today. The bulletin is done and the sermon is written, although I'll spend a good deal more time with it between now and Sunday. I think this passage raises some interesting and important questions. How far would you go to change who you are physically, or economically, or socially? Plastic surgery and botox? How about braces? What would you do to change your economic status? Thousands (millions?) of Americans took out mortgages they knew they couldn't afford so they could cash in on the housing bubble and jump to the next socio-economic level.

Bernie Madoff was so anxious to climb the ladder that he cheated individuals, governments and even charities to the tune of something like $50 billion. That must make him the biggest thief in American history. OK, if you don't count the government.

I also got knew tires for Gerta. Goodness! I would never have predicted that fresh tires would make that much difference in the ride. I knew the ten-year old tires that came off were brittle but that brittleness translated into a harsh and noisey ride. It's almost luxurious now, and much quieter.
Unfortunately they wouldn't put the bias ply tire on the spare rim because they won't work on a tire more than 10 years old, and this one is 17 years old. Hey, it's a spare. It's not like I'm going to drive across country on the thing.
Tomorrow I'll try to find a service station that will put it on.

Our bank has apparently misplaced a $750 deposit Pam made yesterday. We'll also be working that issue tomorrow. Thankfully (!) we have the receipt.

Today the Dow finished above 7000. The recession is over!
OK, maybe not. But it could be. The experts point out that this recession was well underway before we recognized it. In hindsight the signs were there, but they looked like isolated anomolies until the economy had piled up enough of those problems for a long enough time.
The experts also agree that the same thing will happen on the way out. We won't know we're out of this mess until we've been out of it for some time and can look back at a sufficient pattern of upward indicators.
So let's say, for the sake of discussion, that we'll look back and say the economy bottomed out and turned around in the first quarter of '09. Building starts increased in some areas (they have), unemployment bottomed out, sales of existing homes began to pick up, as did the stock market, banks like Citigroup showed a profit, and even screwed-up GM said they didn't need some of the bailout money they had requested.
And if all of that turns out to be true it means that at least some of the steps the government has planned for the near term aren't necessary. And if they aren't necessary they're probably counterproductive...or worse.
So the question seems to be, is the free market system sufficiently resilient to fix itself? Even when the problems are serious and the outcomes of our own greed and selfishness, will the economy self-correct, or require, at the most, very minimal intervention by the govt.? If it is, and if the "corrective" steps the govt. is now taking - like bailing out fatally flawed banks and corporations - then the result could be a whole new set of problems, potentially more serious than the first.
Hey, I have no clue! I know Greek verbs and eschatology, not economic theory. But the free market system has been around a long time and survived worse than this. Politicians? Color me skeptical.
In the meantime, we're paying cash.

What do you call a boomerang that doesn't come back?
A stick.

We're supposed to be in the low-90's by the middle of next week. If you live in a place where heavy coats and gloves are still required you're invited to come for a visit. It really is nice!

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