In previous years Barrett-Jackson has posted on their site the selling price of cars within minutes of their auction. They’re not doing that this year. I really want to know what my ’59 Olds went for.
You know the housing crisis here is bad when people have to move into storage units. But it must be pretty common because many of them are advertising “Move-In Specials.”
Pam decided she would begin recycling in 2011. Which means I’m now recycling. I know it makes me a total heathen that I have not recycled and would not except for Pam’s commitment. I just don’t think it makes all that much difference in the grand scheme of things. If every American recycled every qualifying piece of trash every day for a year it wouldn’t compare to the environmental damage done by China or India in the space of an hour. But even I can’t deal with watching her go through the trash and pick out the stuff I just dumped. So I am now reluctantly recycling. Oh well.
In a college history class I took decades ago a prof pointed out that the world’s power center has rotated around the globe in an east-to-west direction for millennia. In the 14th century China was the most advanced civilization on the planet. They had gun powder and spaghetti when Europe was mired in the middle ages. By the 17th century China had been replaced by Europe as the most advanced, progressive civilization. The Europeans were sailing the globe, expanding their empires and bringing back foreign riches while China was in decline. By the 19th century the center had moved to the new world as the U.S. dominated manufacturing, academics and technology. Here we are in the 21st century and it looks like we’ve gone full circle. Asia, particularly China and India, is/are the manufacturing and economic centers of the world. If you doubt it, look at who owns most of the monstrous U.S. national debt.
I find that a fascinating way to look at history’s big picture. And it raises the question, why the shifts? Is there a pattern, any common denominator that caused either the decline of the old center or the emergence of the new? Any way of predicting, should the Lord tarry, if, when and why the next shift will occur?
You’ll just have to wait for my book on the history of the world to read my brilliant analysis of pasts geographical shifts. But I’ll suggest that the shift we’ve seen over the last 20 years (note: the shifts happen much more quickly as technology shrinks the world) can be attributed in large part to the combination in this country of over-regulation of business, and to entitlement programs. The net effect has been to stifle innovative activity among those who drive our economy and to encourage idleness among those who don’t. That is, government’s overreaching at both ends of the spectrum were the two hands that choked our economy.
Call them draconian, but Asian systems are structured such that if you do not work you do not eat. (It sometimes seems that communist countries act in a capitalistic fashion and visa versa.) Meanwhile, in Asia there are almost no constraints on business, allowing for the kind of unsafe and predatory management conduct that gave rise to the unions in this country 100 years ago. Asia is now doing what we did, though we did it in a more moral way. That is, a democratic system by nature will have greater respect for the rights of individuals.
I’m also no prophet, but if I were to predict what will bring the exploding Asian economies to their knees I’d say it will be a combination of their near total disregard for the environment and their authoritarian governments. This has nothing to do with global warming or putting their Diet Coke cans in the recycle bin. The major cities in China and India are so polluted by manufacturing waste, and their insatiable need for more power is having such a serious effect on their people that at some point I think the people will rebel against their authorities. Eventually they’ll figure out they have been used and abused as a disposable resource. Some respected scientists suggest that last year’s devastating earthquake in China was caused by the weight of water from a large lake created by a new dam. The dam was built, despite warnings, in an area with known earthquake faults. It could be environmental issues will, in and of themselves, bring an economic collapse. But whether that’s the case or that the environmental problems lead to a popular uprising, I can’t see how the east’s insatiable desire for economic growth at all costs can continue for very long.
Where would it go next? It’s interesting to note that this circumnavigation of the globe has all been in the northern hemisphere. Will a southern hemisphere region emerge?
The mayor of the City of Surprise, just west of us, has filed for bankruptcy with $464,000 in personal debt. To be fair, his wife died last year of cancer and her portion of the household income was lost. But the mayor owes $77,000 on 10 different credit cards and has two mortgages totaling $371,000 on his home which is now valued at $153,000. Even if you allow for a 40% drop in the value of his home - the upper end of depreciation here in the valley - they did some serious over-leveraging.
He’s up for re-election this year. Whaddaya think? Would you want him running your city?
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